“Wilders understood very well that he had to be visible right at this moment”
The landslide victory of the PVV is shaking the country to its foundations. Emeritus professor of Dutch history Remieg Aerts previously warned in Folia about the power of Geert Wilders’ parliamentary experience. But one day after the election, how does he view the election result?
What do you think of the election results?
“This is a problematic result, to say the least, which is not going to deliver what society is expecting: solving problems. The right-wing parties will probably try to engineer some kind of cooperation, but I do not expect this to succeed, and even if it does, I do not expect it to last long.”
Did you expect this resounding election victory for Wilders?
“Not to the extent we are seeing now. I don't think anyone expected this, although it is well-known that the Dutch electorate has shifted considerably to the right, a shift you also see abroad. Even the pollsters did not see this coming. Even though you could see that Wilders suddenly shot up quickly in recent days, it remains quite miraculous that a party with no members, no party democracy and a ‘free beer program’ and no financial backing can garner so many votes.”
A few weeks ago in Folia, you warned about Wilders’ power as the most experienced politician in the fray. Did his vast experience as a politician also bring him victory?
“Strategically certainly. Wilders understood very well that he had to be visible right at this moment and come across as worthy of governing, and was able to bring the theme of migration back to the forefront, rather than abstract issues such as government culture and subsistence security. Big issues like the housing shortage and health care costs could all be blamed on ‘migration.’”
Did other parties make campaign mistakes that facilitated this result?
“I think so, yes. First of all, of course, the VVD, which actually blundered twice. Initially, because Rutte dissolved the sitting cabinet on an issue that was not at all an essential problem for the coalition. Then because the new party leader Yeşilgöz suggested normalizing the PVV. Many voters of the PVV had actually long since dropped out because it appeared that the party was sidelined and excluded from the coalition until Yeşilgöz opened the door.”
“GroenLinksPvdA also fumbled. Their left-wing alliance had no supporting or inspiring story. Unfortunately for the left, it mainly had to tell a grim story about all kinds of things that will no longer be possible or allowed in the future. Many people don't want to hear that. Do not forget that the Netherlands is a prosperous country and people do not feel like taking a step back when asked to do so. There is also the ongoing tragedy that the leftist parties leech off each other. The overall leftist electorate hasn't grown for years, no matter who they position. Even someone like Jesse Klaver has seen better days in terms of recruiting power. And look at the SP. It has been continually declining.”
How is the process of forming a coalition going?
“Very laborious, if only because the NSC, PVV, and the VVD in particular are very far apart on many issues, especially in the area of migration. The NSC is mainly concerned with restricting international students and expats, the PVV is talking about restricting asylum seekers, and the VVD cannot afford not to let migrants in because then the business community will immediately start breathing down their necks because they need people. Wilders can say that he will compromise, but in negotiations, he has no change to offer because he hardly has a realistic program.”
Omtzigt already hinted that he might compromise.
“If I look at the NSC’s organization, I think a large part of the NSC would cause problems internally in a coalition with the PVV because they do not want to compromise. That could then just lead to a split within the NSC like it once did with the CDA. The only one who wants to work directly with the PVV is the BBB, an important party because of its sixteen seats in the Senate.”
You paint a pessimistic picture.
“At the moment I believe things are bleak indeed. Current politics lacks sufficient problem-solving ability. As a result, there is and will continue to be little confidence in the political system for the time being, and I expect that we will have to go to the polls again next year. In the meantime, all sorts of problems will remain unresolved, frustration will be even greater by next year and, under the influence of social media, we can surely expect the next ‘savior’ soon.”
No bright spots?
“Perhaps you could say that the advantage of an election result like this is that it has a sobering effect and clarifies the state of things for everyone.”
